Market Supply and Demand Both Weak, Copper Prices Expected to Fluctuate Downward [SMM Copper Morning Comment]

LME copper opened overnight at $9,524/mt, initially declined to a low of $9,460.5/mt, then rebounded to a high of $9,544/mt during the session, and finally fluctuated widely to close at $9,503/mt, with open interest reaching 278,000 lots. The most-traded SHFE copper 2412 contract opened overnight at 76,230 yuan/mt, initially dipped to 76,100 yuan/mt, then fluctuated upward to a high of 76,590 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 76,500 yuan/mt, down 0.56%, with trading volume reaching 36,000 lots and open interest reaching 156,000 lots. Macro side, the US Fed's Beige Book showed that since early September, economic activity in almost all regions has remained largely unchanged, with manufacturing activity declining in most regions. The US dollar index slightly declined but remained strong. Sources indicated that the European Central Bank (ECB) has begun discussing whether interest rates need to be lowered below neutral levels, and an ECB governor stated that a 50 basis point interest rate cut could be considered at the next meeting. Fundamentals side, warehouse warrants continued to flow out, premiums remained generally stable with no significant increase, traders' activity was low, and consumption remained under pressure, resulting in overall weak supply and demand. In summary, with both supply and demand weak and the US dollar index remaining strong, copper prices are expected to fluctuate downward today.